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ProduceIQ: Markets brace for pain as Trump kicks off trade wars

Mexico-vs-america-football

The matchup of a lifetime is brewing, and it isn’t the Chiefs vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.

Over the weekend Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China in his war on illegal immigration and drug trafficking. All three countries have responded that they are preparing similar tariffs on U.S. goods.

As Super Bowl Sunday approaches, game-day spreads may face higher costs due to President Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico. These tariffs are expected to increase the price of avocados and other produce. As these tariffs take effect, all levels of the supply chain should anticipate higher costs and figure out how to comply.

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.37/pound, + up 5.0 percent over prior week  

Week #5, ending January 31st  

Hass avocado prices are down -5 percent over the previous week due to increasing supply from growers in Mexico. Still, at $75 for 48ct, the price of fresh avocado will run significantly above last year’s Super Bowl prices. Supply is forecasted to increase over the next few weeks, but President Trump’s tariffs, set to go into effect Tuesday, have the potential to keep prices above average for the foreseeable future.

Hass Avocado prices are almost $20 higher than the next highest prices (2022).

Haas-avocado-graph-feb3-2025

Though average green bean prices are up +61 percent over the previous week, this is about when they begin to fall. Even with the sizeable rise in price week over week, markets are well below average for week #5. Low supply from growers in Mexico and vessel delays are fueling price growth. However, supply is forecasted to improve over the next few weeks.

Green Bean prices spike to $21, which is still relatively low for this time of year.

Green-beans-graph-feb3-2025

Grape-type tomato prices fall for the fifth straight week and are at their floor. Average prices are declining thanks to increasing import supply, welcome news for any consumer planning to bring a veggie tray to a Super Bowl party this year.

Grape Tomato prices reach the minimum floor price.

Grape-tomatoes-graph-feb3-2025

Strawberry and raspberry prices lay their foot on the gas as Valentine’s Day demand reaches a fever pitch. Cold weather has thrown a wrench into the supply of both commodities just as winter demand peaks. Strawberry prices are up +16 percent, and raspberry prices are up +32 percent over the previous week. Although warmer weather is in the forecast for growers in Mexico and Florida, supply won’t likely recover until after Valentine’s Day as growers work to keep up with demand and Trump’s tariffs throw a wrench in prices.

Please visit our website to discover how our online tools can save time and expand your reach.

ProduceIQ is an online toolset designed to improve the produce trading process for buyers and suppliers. We save you time, expand your opportunities, and provide valuable information to increase your profits.

ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.

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The matchup of a lifetime is brewing, and it isn’t the Chiefs vs. the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX.

Over the weekend Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China in his war on illegal immigration and drug trafficking. All three countries have responded that they are preparing similar tariffs on U.S. goods.

As Super Bowl Sunday approaches, game-day spreads may face higher costs due to President Donald Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imports from Mexico. These tariffs are expected to increase the price of avocados and other produce. As these tariffs take effect, all levels of the supply chain should anticipate higher costs and figure out how to comply.

Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.

ProduceIQ Index:  $1.37/pound, + up 5.0 percent over prior week  

Week #5, ending January 31st  

Hass avocado prices are down -5 percent over the previous week due to increasing supply from growers in Mexico. Still, at $75 for 48ct, the price of fresh avocado will run significantly above last year’s Super Bowl prices. Supply is forecasted to increase over the next few weeks, but President Trump’s tariffs, set to go into effect Tuesday, have the potential to keep prices above average for the foreseeable future.

Hass Avocado prices are almost $20 higher than the next highest prices (2022).

Haas-avocado-graph-feb3-2025

Though average green bean prices are up +61 percent over the previous week, this is about when they begin to fall. Even with the sizeable rise in price week over week, markets are well below average for week #5. Low supply from growers in Mexico and vessel delays are fueling price growth. However, supply is forecasted to improve over the next few weeks.

Green Bean prices spike to $21, which is still relatively low for this time of year.

Green-beans-graph-feb3-2025

Grape-type tomato prices fall for the fifth straight week and are at their floor. Average prices are declining thanks to increasing import supply, welcome news for any consumer planning to bring a veggie tray to a Super Bowl party this year.

Grape Tomato prices reach the minimum floor price.

Grape-tomatoes-graph-feb3-2025

Strawberry and raspberry prices lay their foot on the gas as Valentine’s Day demand reaches a fever pitch. Cold weather has thrown a wrench into the supply of both commodities just as winter demand peaks. Strawberry prices are up +16 percent, and raspberry prices are up +32 percent over the previous week. Although warmer weather is in the forecast for growers in Mexico and Florida, supply won’t likely recover until after Valentine’s Day as growers work to keep up with demand and Trump’s tariffs throw a wrench in prices.

Please visit our website to discover how our online tools can save time and expand your reach.

ProduceIQ is an online toolset designed to improve the produce trading process for buyers and suppliers. We save you time, expand your opportunities, and provide valuable information to increase your profits.

ProduceIQ Index

The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce. 

ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.

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Mark Campbell is an industry veteran with over 20 years of produce experience. After earning his MBA from Columbia Business School, he spent seven years as CFO for J&J Family of Farms. He later served as CFO advisor to several produce growers, shippers, and distributors. In this role, Mark saw the impediments that prevent produce growers and buyers from trading with greater access and efficiency. This led him to cofound ProduceIQ.