This analysis from Wells Fargo was written by Dr. Michael Swanson, Chief Agricultural Economist; Courtney Schmidt, Sector Manager; and Robin Wenzel, Group Head, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute:
On the surface, the cost of celebrating the 2025 Super Bowl resembles the proverbial duck, representing a 0.1% increase in a year-over-year review.[1]
For a menu of food and drinks for 10 people including fan favorites, consumers will spend $139.1* This is virtually the same price paid in 2024, which was only about ten cents more. Since this is good news, then why the duck reference? Because on the surface, a duck looks serene cruising along, but underneath the surface, the duck is paddling like mad.
Analyzing the data from NielsenIQ, which tracks food scanned at retailers across the U.S., we found a surprising spread in prices for popular game-day ingredients and prepared foods. This current landscape means party hosts will be challenged to seek a balance between items that are more expensive and those that have dropped in price if they want to control their party budget.
So, why isn’t there an overarching, easily understood theme that explains everything? The answer is, this isn’t how the economy works. Consumers are faced with the new challenge of becoming “food fluent” given ongoing price fluctuation.
The following chart shows the spread of fan-favorite, game-day food pricing, and it resembles a playground seesaw stuck in the middle.
Given this topsy-turvy food environment, it’s important for shoppers to understand the dynamics of this year’s game-day favorites. Let’s start with an unexpected category: veggies.
Most Vegetable Player (MVP)
Why start with veggies in a Super Bowl food report? Veggies are top of mind as recent data explains how GLP-1 drugs are shifting consumer preferences and shopping patterns, and they highlight the seesaw effect of this year’s price terrain. Super Bowl party hosts will want to offer some healthy options and should monitor pricing across common dipping vegetables.
If broccoli sounds appetizing, fans are in luck with pricing down by 7.2% from 2024.[1] Sounds like a call for creative broccoli recipes. However, if cherry tomatoes are a top pick, shoppers will spend 11.9% more compared to this time last year.[1]
Avocado point spread
Avocados are having a seesaw moment as well. Fresh avocados are up 11.5% from last year, while prepared guacamole dip is up only 1.5% over the same period.[1] Despite the increased cost of fresh avocados, consumers can still save money in the end by making guacamole from scratch. Convenience of prepared foods comes at a price, and labor costs make prepared guacamole less of a bargain even with the increased fresh avocado price. We should also remember that a game-day crowd can consume a lot of guacamole with their chips.
The pricing madness isn’t new to avocados and guac. One can look at different categories of avocado/guacamole dip and find double-digit, year-over-year price changes — both up and down. Avocado and guacamole pricing helps to emphasize that consumers must be attentive, savvy shoppers to get the most bang for their buck.
Chicken wing coin toss
One of the biggest ticket game-day menu items further illustrates the frustrating item-by-item price messiness. Unfortunately, chicken wing lovers are out of luck this year with prices up 7.2% versus last year.[1] Chicken wings have continued their unstoppable growth and popularity on American restaurant menus, thanks to consumers supporting higher wing prices. This combined explanation helps to illustrate that beneath the surface for every food sector, there are many moving parts not seen by the consumer. With this food-focused celebration, consumers will have a chance to vote with their wallets on whether the moving prices for chicken wings are worth the extra spend.
Line of shrimpage
Still within the protein sector, and on the other side of the seesaw, retail prices for whole frozen shrimp have come down 4.0% in 2025 compared to last year.[1] Why are shrimp prices down so much? Two big factors. First, the U.S. imports most of the shrimp we eat from a small set of countries that increased supply when shrimp prices increased around the COVID pandemic. Second, the U.S. retail shrimp demand softened as a result of higher shrimp prices. So, current lower shrimp prices are a rebalancing of these two big changes as the market works to balance the seesaw effect. And, while shrimp is two and half times more expensive per pound than chicken wings, some party hosts might wish to consider shrimp as the go-big, Hail Mary play for their Super Bowl spread.
Snacking station
Chips to accompany the dips illustrate a similar dynamic at the all-important snacking station. The avocados for the guacamole are up in a noticeable way. But, fortunately, the tortilla and potato chips are down, helping to offset the combined items. The total cost of chips and guacamole dip is just two pennies higher than last year. Of course, it’s easy to take the cost savings for granted and grumble about the fumble related to avocado prices. Just proves that even the little seesaws are balanced at the moment. Will there be additional forward momentum on cost savings for these categories for the rest of 2025? Stay tuned for Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute July Fourth report.
Beverage instant replay
Some may call beverages an instant replay of last year’s costs, with both beer and wine seeing only minor 2% increases.[1] Per usual, shoppers can save on soda by opting in for two-liters, versus 12-ounce cans.
Final score
So, what’s the winning game plan for the big game? You certainly could run a trick play with a massive tray of fresh broccoli. But, while saving a ton of money, your guests will likely throw a lot of penalty flags. The recommendation for the most budget-conscious party host is to plan an offensive strategy that involves paying the higher prices for one or two items to please your guests, with a defensive strategy that balances your costs with lower priced items. Happy guests are a winning outcome no matter which team winds up hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this year.
*Data rounded to the nearest dollar.
1.NielsonIQ, data as of early January 2025.
