Post-holiday demand hangover and stable supply send the ProduceIQ Index plummeting. Average prices are down -9 percent over the previous week and typically continue a downward trend into mid-February.
Despite the dramatic change in week-over-week prices, markets are still the second highest for week #1 in the last ten years—forecasts for the next few weeks of supply for most commodities lean moderate to strong. However, there are a few events that may tighten the markets, shifting prices to the supplier’s advantage.
ProduceIQ Index:$1.27/pound, – down 8.6 percent over prior week
Week #1, ending January 3rd
Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.
Ready yourself for the debate on what constitutes an Act of God. There is an increasingly high likelihood that the International Longshoreman’s Association will resume a strike on January 15th. The strike would negatively impact the flow of goods from 36 ports in the Eastern United States. Melons, grapes, and pineapples may experience major fluctuations in supply and significant price increases.
In addition, this week, a polar vortex is escaping deep into Southeastern parts of the U.S. The major winter storm will likely bring record snowfall and ice. Transportation of fresh produce, especially through the Midwest, will be extremely challenging. Freezing temperatures are forecasted for growers as far south as Central Florida but are not expected to reach growers in South Florida. Cold weather slows plant growth and reduces yields even if not freezing.
Avocado prices are down -15 percent over the previous week but are still at a ten-year high. Holiday-related labor shortages and strong demand are challenging suppliers. Smaller sizing is more readily available, but that may change over the next few weeks as a new crop begins at higher altitudes. Prices may decrease over the next few weeks as supply from Mexico increases.
Hass Avocado, 48ct, prices begin 2025 at $60.
Slow-to-start celery production in Yuma, AZ, is fueling high average prices. Up +8 percent over the previous week, prices are notably above average for week #1. Fortunately for buyers, relief is not far off. Supply is expected to increase steadily out of Yuma over the next few weeks.
Celery, 24ct, is $30 and prices, excluding 2019, typically fall through January.
Table grape prices are poised for a record-breaking month. At $38, average grape prices are already at a ten-year high by a significant margin. In a normal year, prices typically fall steadily over the next two months thanks to plentiful supply from growers in South America. This year, low volume from Peru is setting up grape markets for an expensive start to the new year. Relief is expected by mid-January but may be thwarted by the ILA strike scheduled to start on January 15th.
ProduceIQ is an online toolset designed to improve the produce trading process for buyers and suppliers. We save you time, expand your opportunities, and provide valuable information to increase your profits.
ProduceIQ Index
The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.
ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.
Post-holiday demand hangover and stable supply send the ProduceIQ Index plummeting. Average prices are down -9 percent over the previous week and typically continue a downward trend into mid-February.
Despite the dramatic change in week-over-week prices, markets are still the second highest for week #1 in the last ten years—forecasts for the next few weeks of supply for most commodities lean moderate to strong. However, there are a few events that may tighten the markets, shifting prices to the supplier’s advantage.
ProduceIQ Index:$1.27/pound, – down 8.6 percent over prior week
Week #1, ending January 3rd
Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.
Ready yourself for the debate on what constitutes an Act of God. There is an increasingly high likelihood that the International Longshoreman’s Association will resume a strike on January 15th. The strike would negatively impact the flow of goods from 36 ports in the Eastern United States. Melons, grapes, and pineapples may experience major fluctuations in supply and significant price increases.
In addition, this week, a polar vortex is escaping deep into Southeastern parts of the U.S. The major winter storm will likely bring record snowfall and ice. Transportation of fresh produce, especially through the Midwest, will be extremely challenging. Freezing temperatures are forecasted for growers as far south as Central Florida but are not expected to reach growers in South Florida. Cold weather slows plant growth and reduces yields even if not freezing.
Avocado prices are down -15 percent over the previous week but are still at a ten-year high. Holiday-related labor shortages and strong demand are challenging suppliers. Smaller sizing is more readily available, but that may change over the next few weeks as a new crop begins at higher altitudes. Prices may decrease over the next few weeks as supply from Mexico increases.
Hass Avocado, 48ct, prices begin 2025 at $60.
Slow-to-start celery production in Yuma, AZ, is fueling high average prices. Up +8 percent over the previous week, prices are notably above average for week #1. Fortunately for buyers, relief is not far off. Supply is expected to increase steadily out of Yuma over the next few weeks.
Celery, 24ct, is $30 and prices, excluding 2019, typically fall through January.
Table grape prices are poised for a record-breaking month. At $38, average grape prices are already at a ten-year high by a significant margin. In a normal year, prices typically fall steadily over the next two months thanks to plentiful supply from growers in South America. This year, low volume from Peru is setting up grape markets for an expensive start to the new year. Relief is expected by mid-January but may be thwarted by the ILA strike scheduled to start on January 15th.
ProduceIQ is an online toolset designed to improve the produce trading process for buyers and suppliers. We save you time, expand your opportunities, and provide valuable information to increase your profits.
ProduceIQ Index
The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.
ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.
Mark Campbell is an industry veteran with over 20 years of produce experience. After earning his MBA from Columbia Business School, he spent seven years as CFO for J&J Family of Farms. He later served as CFO advisor to several produce growers, shippers, and distributors. In this role, Mark saw the impediments that prevent produce growers and buyers from trading with greater access and efficiency. This led him to cofound ProduceIQ.
