I’m having a little trouble believing the figures.
Specifically, the current annual inflation rate, which is 7.9 percent over the previous year, according to reported statistics.
I can’t quarrel with the math of it, most of which I don’t understand anyway. But I’m seeing a lot more inflation than that in many areas of day-to-day life.
Let us take my most recent bill from Nicor Gas, dated February 11. It tells me that in the previous month, natural gas cost me 55 cents per therm. The cost for a year ago? It was 30 cents. (Don’t forget: natural gas is a major component of agricultural fertilizer.)
Gas prices in my part of suburban Chicago have risen from around $3.49 per gallon a couple of months ago to $4.49.
Further anecdotal evidence: recently I was having a craving for the nachos at the Village Tavern, a neighborhood local in Carol Stream, IL, not far from Blue Book headquarters.
Their nachos come in monstrous proportions. I certainly couldn’t finish them, and I recollected that my wife and I once split an order for dinner and still had plenty left over.
Relevant points:
- The guacamole portion on these nachos must have required at least two full avocados.
- The price has risen from the previous $10.99 to $14.99.
And I will not name a certain restaurant in my vicinity that raised their prices for breakfast skillets for nearly $2 (on a dish that used to cost around $9 or $10) without having the decency to put the new prices on the menu. (I told the proprietor that this was bad business practice, and that I would not be back.)
All of these increases amount to inflation rates of around 20-50 percent.
I realize that these are spot figures, and statistical calculations involve any number of other variables.
Nevertheless, it seems to be that the inflation rate is shaping up to be much higher than present figures indicate.
Oh, by the way: all of this was before the war broke out in Ukraine.
Every indication that I can see, from all directions, point to a double-digit inflation rate over the next year.
Blue Book’s own figures, posted this morning, say, “In February 2022, the price per pound for total fresh produce increased by +10.9% over February 2021. The latest 52-week look was lower, at +7.6%, given the much milder inflation in the second quarter of 2021. Fresh vegetable inflation was far below average, at +6.2 in February, contrary to fruitt hat reached its highest levels seen yet, at +16.1%.”
The big questions for the industry:
- To what extent are these increases going to offset rising labor, transportation, and other costs?
- How much of this price increase will make it back to grower-shippers?
Consumer responses to these increases are still mostly a matter of speculation, as far as I can see.
In our house, I have asked my wife to cut back on the fast-food purchases that our sons manage to wheedle out of her every couple of days.
I may not get back to you about how this works out.
I’m having a little trouble believing the figures.
Specifically, the current annual inflation rate, which is 7.9 percent over the previous year, according to reported statistics.
I can’t quarrel with the math of it, most of which I don’t understand anyway. But I’m seeing a lot more inflation than that in many areas of day-to-day life.
Let us take my most recent bill from Nicor Gas, dated February 11. It tells me that in the previous month, natural gas cost me 55 cents per therm. The cost for a year ago? It was 30 cents. (Don’t forget: natural gas is a major component of agricultural fertilizer.)
Gas prices in my part of suburban Chicago have risen from around $3.49 per gallon a couple of months ago to $4.49.
Further anecdotal evidence: recently I was having a craving for the nachos at the Village Tavern, a neighborhood local in Carol Stream, IL, not far from Blue Book headquarters.
Their nachos come in monstrous proportions. I certainly couldn’t finish them, and I recollected that my wife and I once split an order for dinner and still had plenty left over.
Relevant points:
- The guacamole portion on these nachos must have required at least two full avocados.
- The price has risen from the previous $10.99 to $14.99.
And I will not name a certain restaurant in my vicinity that raised their prices for breakfast skillets for nearly $2 (on a dish that used to cost around $9 or $10) without having the decency to put the new prices on the menu. (I told the proprietor that this was bad business practice, and that I would not be back.)
All of these increases amount to inflation rates of around 20-50 percent.
I realize that these are spot figures, and statistical calculations involve any number of other variables.
Nevertheless, it seems to be that the inflation rate is shaping up to be much higher than present figures indicate.
Oh, by the way: all of this was before the war broke out in Ukraine.
Every indication that I can see, from all directions, point to a double-digit inflation rate over the next year.
Blue Book’s own figures, posted this morning, say, “In February 2022, the price per pound for total fresh produce increased by +10.9% over February 2021. The latest 52-week look was lower, at +7.6%, given the much milder inflation in the second quarter of 2021. Fresh vegetable inflation was far below average, at +6.2 in February, contrary to fruitt hat reached its highest levels seen yet, at +16.1%.”
The big questions for the industry:
- To what extent are these increases going to offset rising labor, transportation, and other costs?
- How much of this price increase will make it back to grower-shippers?
Consumer responses to these increases are still mostly a matter of speculation, as far as I can see.
In our house, I have asked my wife to cut back on the fast-food purchases that our sons manage to wheedle out of her every couple of days.
I may not get back to you about how this works out.
Richard Smoley, contributing editor for Blue Book Services, Inc., has more than 40 years of experience in magazine writing and editing, and is the former managing editor of California Farmer magazine. A graduate of Harvard and Oxford universities, he has published 12 books.
