This is a guest column by Craig Slate, President & CEO of SunFed BB #:150037:
Tariffs on fresh produce will lead to higher prices and shortages of fresh and processed fruits and vegetables.
The cost of these tariffs will ultimately be passed on to U.S. consumers, while farmers will plant less due to increased financial risk. Farming is a high-risk, low-margin business that cannot absorb these additional costs.
As a result, growers and shippers will either pass on the added expenses or, in some cases, choose not to plant at all, leading to a direct reduction in supply. The impact will not be limited to fresh produce—prices for all forms of fruits and vegetables, including canned and frozen options, will also rise.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
In 2023, the U.S. imported $10.86 billion worth of edible fruit and nuts and $9.52 billion worth of vegetables from Mexico (1). In 2021, the total U.S. farm value for fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables was $49 billion, broken down as $20 billion in fruits and $19 billion in vegetables (2).
This means that, combined, U.S. and Mexican-grown fruits, tree nuts, and vegetables account for approximately $70 billion in agricultural value—Mexico alone representing about 30% of that total. When factoring out nuts, Mexico’s share increases to approximately 33%.
Simply put, 30% of U.S. and Mexican produce will be subject to higher costs and reduced supply due to tariffs. Because fresh fruit and vegetable prices are primarily driven by supply and demand, the cost of U.S.-grown produce will also rise.
Since the U.S. and Mexico supply the vast majority of fresh and processed produce to American consumers, everyone—from families to restaurants—will be impacted financially.
Why Tariffs on Produce Make No Sense
I believe most growers and shippers of fresh produce support the overall U.S. tariff strategy.
However, including fresh produce in the battle with Mexico and Canada is illogical.
• Mexico’s agricultural exports to the U.S. ($49 billion) represent only 10% of all U.S. imports from Mexico (3).
• Canada’s exports to the U.S. totaled $439.6 billion in 2023, with vegetables and related products making up just $6.08 billion—a mere 1.38% of Canada’s exports to the U.S. (3).
Frankly, Mexico and Canada are unlikely to be significantly impacted by tariffs on fresh produce. Their focus in negotiations will be on their major export categories, not minor ones like fruits and vegetables.
However, using produce as a bargaining chip will have an immediate and severe impact on U.S. consumers’ health, food access, and grocery bills.
As an American, I support efforts to eliminate illegal drugs that harm public health. But I do not support harming all Americans—especially those making good health decisions for themselves and their families—by making fresh food more expensive.
Reshoring Fresh Produce? Impossible
If the goal of these tariffs is to encourage reshoring of fresh produce production to the U.S., it simply cannot be done.
The U.S. does not have:
• Enough land for large-scale fresh produce expansion
• Adequate water supplies for increased irrigation
• Sufficient labor to sustain new farms
• The right climate year-round to support production of key fresh produce items
California alone produces nearly 70% of all U.S. fruits and vegetables, followed by Washington (8%) and Florida (6.5%)—a combined 83.5% of total U.S. production (4). The reason California dominates is climate stability.
Farming is already challenging due to unpredictable weather; produce must be grown where conditions are suitable, which changes throughout the year.
You can’t grow watermelons in the U.S. during the winter, and you can’t grow them in the same place in the U.S. during the spring, summer, and fall. Production is constantly moving to where the weather makes sense.
While Controlled Environment (CE) farming has been successful in Canada, it requires massive capital investment and is expensive to operate. Moving large portions of U.S. fresh produce to CE farming would take years, require substantial infrastructure, and result in significantly higher prices for consumers.
Instead of focusing on reshoring, the focus should be on helping U.S. farmers compete by addressing their most pressing needs:
• Water access
• Farm labor shortages
• Lower labor costs
• Fewer regulatory burdens
Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs is already causing buyers in Canada to cancel contracts for U.S.-grown produce, further hurting American farmers. This will push more U.S. farmers out of business and reduce domestic supply.
Act Now – Before It’s Too Late
If you’ve read this far, thank you! Now, I urge you to spread the word—to your family, friends, and most importantly, to Washington, D.C. Contact your congressman. Use social media.
A disaster is coming to the produce aisle if fresh produce is included in the upcoming tariffs on Mexico and Canada. The U.S. consumer needs a carve-out for fresh produce—and we need it before April 2nd.
Farmers are making planting decisions right now for this summer. Without confidence that their crops won’t be subjected to tariffs, some will plant less—or not at all. If these tariffs are implemented, the cost to U.S. grocery shoppers will be nearly $20 billion.
• Based on 2024 grocery retail sales of $92 billion (5), a 20% price increase on fresh produce means consumers will pay an estimated $18.4 billion more for their groceries.
• And that doesn’t even include additional costs from reduced supply, restaurant price hikes, or increased prices for processed produce items.
Help Protect Affordable, Healthy Food
Please help save American consumers from skyrocketing food costs. Contact Congress and the White House NOW and ask that they remove fresh produce from the proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Time is running out. Take action today.
Sources:
(1) USImportData.com
(2) FreshFruitPortal.com
(3) TradingEconomics.com
(4) GrowingProduce.com
(5) Retailwire.com (via-Supermarket News)
