Barrington, Ill. – February 11, 2025 – The U.S. online grocery market finished January 2025 with $10.0 billion in monthly sales, a 16.6 percent increase over January 2024 as all three fulfillment methods posted year-over-year (YOY) sales gains according to the Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopper Survey fielded January 30-31, 2025, sponsored by Mercatus.
January marked the 6th consecutive month of eGrocery sales above $9.5 billion, fueled in large part by the broad and deep discounts on membership and/or subscription programs.
Delivery’s YOY growth in January accelerated even faster than the prior month, surging approximately 37 percent to $4.1 billion, as it continued to benefit from the various promotional discounts on memberships and subscriptions that have continued since mid-2024.
Delivery posted an exceptionally strong expansion in its monthly active user base (MAUs), strong gains in order frequency, and a nominal increase in average order values (AOVs). This momentum helped Delivery capture 610 basis points (bps) of sales share versus a year ago, to finish January with 41 percent eGrocery sales.
“It’s important to call out that much of Delivery’s explosive growth is driven by Mass and specifically Walmart,” said David Bishop, partner at Brick Meets Click. “The ongoing waves of promotional tactics are having the intended positive impact on frequency and spend, and they are also increasing retention and share of wallet, which will make growth for their rivals more challenging going forward.”
Pickup’s positive YOY growth was muted compared to Delivery’s surge. Pickup sales climbed 4 percent versus last year to $4.2 billion, driven entirely by stronger AOVs, which offset a contracted MAU base and a drop in order frequency. The headwinds facing Pickup are due largely to the impact of the promotional efforts that are driving demand towards Delivery. This has led Pickup to cede 500 bps of sales share on a YOY basis to end January with 42 percent of eGrocery sales, just slightly ahead of Delivery.
Ship-to-Home sales jumped 9 percent in January compared to last year to $1.6 billion. Strong expansion of its MAU base and increased order frequency fueled the gains despite a YOY decline in AOV. Ship-to-Home continues to benefit to some degree from a suboptimal in-store shopping experience related to certain general merchandise and health & beauty care products being locked up to prevent theft. However, like Pickup, Ship-to-Home’s lagging rate of growth versus Delivery caused it to lose 110 bps of sales share compared to last year, ending January with 16 percent of all eGrocery sales.
Grocery operators, which include both Supermarkets and Hard Discounters, continue to face stiff competition from Mass rivals and specifically Walmart as it leverages Delivery and its Walmart+ membership program to gain market share. In terms of household monthly penetration, the Mass format has consistently served approximately half of all the MAUs during each January since 2022, whereas Supermarkets have served one third of MAUs and Hard Discount under 5 percent of MAUs.
Given that customers’ experiences and expectations continue to evolve, it’s important to understand cross-shopping and repeat intent trends in relation to each other. For cross-shopping, one-third of Grocery’s MAU base also completed an order with a Mass retailer sometime during January 2025, although this rate slipped 50 bps compared to the prior year.
When it comes to the likelihood of reusing the same service within the next 30 days, Grocery closed its gap with Mass in January 2025 as Grocery’s repeat intent climbed 600 bps YOY while the rate for Mass remained unchanged versus last year. Grocery’s overall repeat intent gains were driven by improvements related to Pickup orders as the Mass format continues to maintain its lead for Delivery orders.
“Delivery’s impressive growth has been driven by membership promotions, but shoppers can easily shift platforms depending on which factor matters most to them – price, product, or convenience,” said Mark Fairhurst, Chief Growth Marketing Officer, Mercatus. “Grocers that prioritize seamless experiences, deliver personalized offers, provide exceptional service, and implement compelling loyalty strategies will be best positioned for sustainable, long-term growth.”
While monthly eGrocery sales climbed significantly during January 2025, up 16.6 percent YOY, overall grocery spending climbed just 2.5 percent versus last year. As a result, eGrocery’s share of total grocery sales rose to 15 percent for January, up 180 bps compared to a year ago.
For more information about January 2025 results, check out the latest Brick Meets Click eGrocery Dashboard or visit the eGrocery Monthly Sales report page for information about subscribing to the full monthly report.
About this consumer research
The Brick Meets Click Grocery Shopping Survey is an ongoing independent research initiative created and conducted by the team at Brick Meets Click and sponsored by Mercatus.
Brick Meets Click conducted the most recent survey on January 30-31, 2025, with 1,691 adults, 18 years and older, who participated in the household’s grocery shopping, and a similar survey in January 2024 (n=1,745). Results are adjusted based on internet usage among U.S. adults to account for the non-response bias associated with online surveys. Responses are geographically representative of the U.S. and weighted by age to reflect the national population of adults, 18 years and older, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The three receiving methods for online grocery orders are defined as follows:
· Delivery includes orders received from a first- or third-party provider like Instacart, Shipt or the retailer’s own employees.
· Pickup includes orders that are received by customers either inside or outside a store or at a designated location/locker.
· Ship-to-Home includes orders that are received via common or contract carriers like FedEx, UPS, USPS, etc.
About Brick Meets Click
Brick Meets Click is an analytics and strategic insight firm that connects today’s grocery business with tomorrow’s needs. Our clear thinking and practical solutions help clients make their strategies and customer offers more compelling and relevant in the changing U.S. grocery market. We bring deep industry expertise and fact-based analysis to the challenge of finding new routes to success.
About Mercatus
Mercatus drives digital transformation for retailers through an extensive suite of connected and contextualized commerce solutions. We enhance shopper engagement, tailor experiences to individual preferences, and cultivate enduring loyalty across retail businesses of every size. Our mission is to enable retailers to captivate customers, boost sales, foster retention, and deepen loyalty in a digital world. With our cutting-edge solutions, retailers can streamline operations, enrich customer experiences, and realize substantial growth. Embark on the digital transformation journey and unleash the full potential of your retail business with Mercatus.
Media Inquiries
David Bishop, Partner, Brick Meets Click
847-722-2732, david.bishop@brickmeetsclick.com
