As the nation gears up for Election Week, more than just ballots are being cast; markets are also reacting to incessantly shifting prediction polls in this highly contested presidential race.
With everchanging policy possibilities, particularly around agriculture and trade, this week’s election outcomes could significantly affect the produce industry. Let’s explore how seasonal shifts and supply trends coincide with this pivotal moment.
ProduceIQ Index: $1.21/pound, up +2 percentover prior week
Week #44, ending November 1st
Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.
As if we needed more big news this week. Invest 97L is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Rafael today. The storm has the potential to reach hurricane status as it travels Northwest through the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast late this week or early next week.
Dry onion prices are up +3 percent over the previous week. Driven by heat in Western growing regions, surprisingly strong election week demand, and the McDonald’s E. coli outbreak, average prices are at their third highest level in the last ten years. As more suppliers enter the market, prices are expected to come down.
Sweet corn prices continue to soar due to insect pressure, crop loss from hurricanes, and production gaps in the West. Average prices are up +16 percent over the previous week, a ten-year high. Supply will likely stay extremely tight, and prices will remain high until Mexican production can pick up later this month.
Broccoli markets are in a transitional pickle. Heat damage diminished the existing supply, and cool temperatures are slowing growth. Average prices are up +44 percent over the previous week to a ten-year high. Expect elevated prices until the transition to growers in Mexico and Yuma is complete.
In line with previous seasonal trends, strawberry prices are on the rise. Declining production in California due to cooler weather is tightening supply. Unlike other years, production in Florida may be pushed back by 2-3 weeks, adding further pressure to supply hungry markets. Mexican production is set to begin in the next couple of weeks and will provide some relief, but expect prices to continue to climb through week #48.
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ProduceIQ Index
The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.
ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.
