Average produce prices defy the odds. The ProduceIQ index fell -3 percent over the previous week after an indisputably rough week for all levels of the produce supply chain.
Prices, nevertheless, remain at record highs and are expected to not fall in the coming weeks as far as usual. Georgia typically has a plentiful harvest that should be in full swing this month.
ProduceIQ Index: $1.25/pound, down -3.1 percentover prior week
Week #40, ending October 4th
Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.
In the Southeast, Hurricane Helene left tragedy in its wake. Over 200 residents in six states lost their lives due to the storm. Helene struck the Southeast with two days of record-breaking rainfall in the Blue Ridge Mountains, the Carolinas, and Tennessee. When the storm arrived, there was nowhere for the rain except to flow down the mountains and into the valleys, hollers, and rivers.
It is estimated that over three days, 40 trillion gallons of water fell on the southeast from Helene and preceding storms, which is enough water to fill Lake Tahoe. As you can imagine, produce supply chains did not escape Mother Nature’s sodden greeting.
Growers are still assessing damage, but tomato and sweet potato growers report significant losses in the Carolinas and Tennessee. Many regional and local growers are also reporting catastrophic crop losses.
North Florida growers were about a week away from new plantings and predominately avoided dire losses to fall crops. Everything from roads to processing facilities, farms, and grocery stores saw significant damage from the storm. It will likely take months for workers to rebuild so supply chains can function normally in the area again. All eyes are now on Hurricane Milton as it approaches the West coast of Florida from the Gulf.
As of Monday morning, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on the West Coast of Florida somewhere between Celestun and Cabo Catoche. Storm surge of up to 12 feet and heavy rain across the state’s peninsula are in the forecast.
One of the more significant dangers Milton poses is a flood threat. Like Helene, the state is forecasted to have two days of heavy rain preceding the storm, leaving grounds saturated and ripe for floods. Flood warnings and watches are in effect for counties all across the state.
On the West Coast, a late-season heat wave continues across California and the Southwest. Just off the Central and Southern California Coast, temperatures are forecasted to roar into the 90s and low 100s throughout the week. The high heat will increase disease and insect pressure for Salinas Valley and Santa Maria commodities.
In some non-weather related news, average prices jump over $3 a barrel after nearly two years of stagnant oil prices as conflict in the Middle East fuels supply concerns.
Back on the North American continent, the port strike is over…for now. After three days, the International Longshoremen’s Association and shipping companies reached a temporary agreement. While not all commodities were affected by this strike, bananas were most vulnerable to supply disruptions because the ILA handles 75 percent of bananas arriving at U.S. ports. Winter is the busier season for imports and the ports as significant harvesting moves south of Florida from January through March.
Sweet potato prices stay steady despite reports that growers in North Carolina have lost 20 percent of their fall crop due to Helene. Average prices typically fluctuate over the next few months as holiday demand strains sweet potato supply and spikes prices. As more clarity is brought to the situation in North Carolina, we will do our best to give you updates for this holiday season.
Sweet potatoes are climbing as rain impacted the end of the harvest window.
Tomato prices spike +17 percent over the previous week and will likely climb much higher in response to Helene on the East Coast and heat in the West. In the coming weeks, expect high prices and quality issues such as splitting and cracking due to excess moisture.
Round Tomatoes, $18, are prepared to test historical price levels.
It’s not all doom and gloom for produce buyers this week. Long-awaited relief for lime buyers is finally here. Average prices are down -27 percent over the previous week. The new crop is here, providing much-needed relief through increased supply and improved quality. Expect prices to continue to descend over the next few weeks.
Lime prices (200ct through Texas) are falling fast.
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ProduceIQ Index
The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.
ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.
