Peak Atlantic hurricane season is upon us. Oddly, the tropics are comparatively quiet now. But don’t be lulled into vulnerability.
September is like the SEC of hurricane season—it’s when nearly half of the action happens, and the intensity can ramp up faster than one of Georgia’s wide receivers. The Saharan dust that’s been keeping things under control is starting to clear, and increasing tropical waves from Africa could lend 2024’s hurricane season to a rapid change in pace over the next few weeks.
There are a few dark-horse tropical systems to watch this week. A tropical rainstorm is bringing rain to Texas and Louisiana. Later in the week, a tropical system with low risk for development will bring heavy rain to the East Coast, and another tropical wave with low risk for development will bring heavy rain to parts of the Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico.
Avocados, tomatoes, limes, mangoes, beans, and raspberries are some of the commodities that may be affected by higher-than-average rain over the next week.
ProduceIQ Index: $1.25/pound, up +3.3 percentover prior week
Week #35, ending August 31st
Blue Book has teamed with ProduceIQ BB #:368175 to bring the ProduceIQ Index to its readers. The index provides a produce industry price benchmark using 40 top commodities to provide data for decision making.
Pineapple markets struggle to shake off high prices. Larger-sized fruit is tight due to drought in Costa Rica, logistics complications, and lower-than-average supply from Mexico. Pineapple markets have had a record year. From week #16 to week #29, pineapple prices were at a ten-year high. And now, week #35 prices are surpassed only by last year’s historic run.
September typically marks a seasonal decline in prices, but inclement weather across growing regions may prevent a return to “normal” pricing for the second year.
Blueberry prices spike +31 percent over the previous week. The sun is setting on production in the Pacific Northwest, and production in Mexico and Peru won’t be ready to fill the gap until October. Blueberry prices typically rise between weeks #35 and #40. This year, markets may see above-average increases due to the early end of production in the Northwest.
Limes, always a wildcard, continue to surge despite relief from a new crop. Crossings from Mexico are down over the previous week and quality issues continue to plague supply. Volatility will continue for the next two weeks as the new crop ramps up supply.
Up +11 percent over the previous week, cauliflower prices hold tight to a ten-year high by a significant margin. Heat in the Salinas Valley breeds insects and stunts growth. Anticipate extreme volatility over the next two weeks until Western growing areas benefit from more favorable weather.
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ProduceIQ Index
The ProduceIQ Index is the fresh produce industry’s only shipping point price index. It represents the industry-wide price per pound at the location of packing for domestic produce and at the port of U.S. entry for imported produce.
ProduceIQ uses 40 top commodities to represent the industry. The Index weights each commodity dynamically, by season, as a function of the weekly 5-year rolling average Sales. Sales are calculated using the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service for movement and price data. The Index serves as a fair benchmark for industry price performance.
